Ponting makes key predictions for upcoming Ashes series

ICC Hall of Famer Ricky Ponting has delivered his predictions on how the upcoming Ashes series between Australia and England could pan out.

Ponting spoke in depth about the Ashes with host Sanjana Ganesan on the latest episode of The ICC Review and the Australian great believes the upcoming series will be a lot closer than many experts are predicting.

While Australia have held the Ashes since 2018 and have lost just four Test matches to England on home soil since the turn of the century, Ponting believes England will be competitive during the five-match Test series Down Under.

Tight series scoreline expected

"I don't think there'll be any draws, just the way that England play," Ponting declared.

"If there's reasonable weather through the Australian summer, we know that the biggest concern for the last 15 years has been Sydney with the amount of days we've lost there.

"Perth and Brisbane this time of year are normally great. So I don't foresee any drawn games and I just think it's going to be really, really close.

"So I'm going 3-2 Australia.

"The fact that there's no draws. I just think that's how potentially close it could be. And obviously I'm taking everything into account there as well.

"The fact that England have only won four Test matches in Australia this century and I'm predicting that they're going to win two in this series. So that's how much closer I think it could be."

Openers key for England

Ponting believes the opening partnership of Zak Crawley and Ben Duckett will be crucial for England as he thinks Australia's bowlers can dominate the tourists' middle-order should early inroads be made.

Ponting thinks England's openers must attack Australia's quicks to try and obtain the upper hand early in their innings.

"I have had a bit of a look back through the last couple of years when England have played really good Test cricket and it's been on the back of some really good, fast, positive starts from their openers," Ponting noted.

"Because of the way that they play, they come out, they play their shots, they put pressure back on the opposition straight away and sometimes before you know, you look up at the scoreboard and they are none for 70 or 80 and you're sort of eight or 10 overs into the Test match.

"That's the way they'll need to do it again, I think in Australia. It won't be easy because the wickets in Perth and Brisbane if they happen to bat first anyway, which is not England's preferred style of playing.

"England always like to bat second if they can, but I just think if they don't get off to flying starts and Duckett and Crawley can't be consistent at the top of the order, it just puts so much more pressure on those middle-order players on (Joe) Root, on (Harry) Brook, on Ollie Pope, who we know hasn't got a great record in Australia either.

"And all of a sudden you might look up and Ben Stokes is in a whole lot earlier than what England would want him to be. So I think they (England openers) are crucial.

"Everyone will talk about Root and Brook and Stokes and the impact that they could have on this series. But if the openers don't get England off to a really good, solid, fast start, then the Australian bowlers could dominate and get into that middle-order nice and early with the newer Kookaburra ball and it could be exactly what Australia are after."

Stokes still England's trump card

Ponting is a long-time admirer of England captain Ben Stokes and believes the star all-rounder remains the most crucial player for the tourists.

The former Australian skipper is especially keen to see how Stokes performs with the ball, given he will be able to provide front-line quicks Jofra Archer and Mark Wood the chance to freshen up in between spells.

"The captain is always the most important player going into an Ashes series anyway, but I just think the way that England might line up in that first game, if they play Wood and they play Archer, they might play Atkinson as well. I just think that the role of Ben Stokes with the ball for England becomes so vitally important because he is well documented, you know, how fit he is, how hard he's worked," Ponting said.

"He's made some sacrifices to his diet and his lifestyle to give himself a chance to be as good as he can be with the ball in this series. I think if he is fit and bowling as well as he can, then he's almost England's best bowler anyway in Test cricket, but he also gives Archer and Wood that chance to just freshen up a little bit.

"Also gives them the chance to maybe not even think about playing a specialist spinner if they don't want to in Perth and Brisbane, which is something I know that England have been talking about.

"I think his role is crucial for England's success right the way through this entire series. If he's fit, healthy and strong and bowling as well as he can for five games makes them a much, much better team."

Smith to thrive in Cummins' absence

With Pat Cummins ruled out of the first Test due to a back injury and no certainty to return for the second Test in Brisbane, the Aussies will hand the captaincy reins to a familiar figure in former skipper Steve Smith.

Ponting expects Smith to thrive in the role.

"I think his (batting) record as captain is better than it is as a player anyway," Ponting noted.

Smith’s average dramatically improves when he leads the side, going to 68.98, almost 13 more than his career average of 56.02. On the other hand, his average when he doesn’t captain is 49.90.

"So his average is better than it is as a normal player. The fact that there's a bit of conjecture around Australia's top-order, I think, means that Smith needs to have a great series with the bat for Australia to win.

“There are always lots of people looking and talking and commenting on the way the captains go and as a captain, these are the moments that you live for.

"These series, being able to forge your reputation in Ashes series, whether you're an Englishman in Australia or you're the home captain, this is what we all play for.

"So I'm really looking forward to not just the battle between the two captains, but these two teams for me line up incredibly well and I can't wait for Friday to come around."

Aussie double predicted for leading run-scorer and wicket-taker

Ponting originally predicted Josh Hazlewood would be the leading wicket-taker for both sides during the Ashes, but switched to a fellow Australian fast bowler once he found out the experienced right-armer would miss the first Test in Perth.

"I actually had Hazlewood in as the leading wicket taker so I'm going to have to take that out now and I'll go Mitchell Starc now as the leading wicket taker across the series

"Who knows what's going to happen if they happen to rest and rotate, that's the thing that we don't know.

"If Cummins comes back in and then Hazlewood comes back in a little bit later, there might be an opportunity that Starc misses one of those games.

"He won't want to...but that's the hardest thing I think about trying to pick a leading wicket-taker now is you just don't know what they're thinking about getting him through five Test matches. So I'll go with Starc.

"And I just think everything is aligned perfectly for Steve Smith to be the leading run scorer.

"Back in that No.4 spot, has made hundreds in his last few Test matches that he's played, freshened up off a break being in New York away from everything for a while, scores a 100 when he comes back in his first Sheffield Shield game.

"I think he averages over 60 with the bat as captain. And I just think that it probably should be an Australian to be leading run-scorer, just considering the conditions and how hard it generally is for touring teams here.

"I might be a little bit biased, but Starc with the wickets and Smith with the runs."