Remaining scenarios for teams still in CWC25 semi-final race
A detailed look at the permutations that could unfold for the three teams chasing the final spot in the semi-finals at the Women's World Cup.
Three teams have already booked their spot in the knockout stages of the ICC Women's Cricket World Cup, with Australia, England and South Africa confirmed semi-finalists.
There are another three sides chasing the one vacant spot, with India, New Zealand and Sri Lanka still in contention of featuring.
Thursday's clash between India and New Zealand will be pivotal for the three sides and we look at all the potential scenarios facing the teams during the final portion of the group stage.
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4. India – 4 points, +0.526 NRR
If India win both their remaining matches - against New Zealand and Bangladesh - then they will progress to the semi-finals, while a victory over the White Ferns on Thursday will also prove enough even if they drop their final game of the league stage.
A win over New Zealand and loss against Bangladesh would leave India with six points and they would be the only team at the tournament that can finish with that points haul and a total of three victories.
16.10.2 of the playing conditions for the tournament confirm:
In the event of teams finishing on equal points in the league stage, the ordering of teams will be decided in the following order of priority:
– The team with the greatest number of wins in the league matches will be placed in the higher position.
– If there are teams with equal points and equal wins in the league matches, then in such case the teams will be ordered according to their net run rate (NRR) in the league matches (refer to 16.10.5 below for the calculation of NRR).
– If two or more teams are still equal, they will be ordered according to the result of the head-to-head match played between them (points, then if still equal, NRR in those matches.
– If the above does not resolve the league ordering, or if all matches within the league stage produce no results, the teams will be ordered as per their original league seedings.
That means India would own the tie break over New Zealand - and potentially Sri Lanka - with a win over the White Ferns and a loss to Bangladesh.
If India lose to New Zealand and then defeat Bangladesh, they will be relying on England defeating the White Ferns on the final day of the league stage to sneak into the final four.
If India lose both their remaining matches then they are out of contention for the semi-finals.
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5. New Zealand – 4 points, -0.245 NRR
If New Zealand win both their remaining matches - against India and England - then they will finish on eight points and qualify for the semi-finals.
A win against India coupled with a loss to England will need the Kiwis relying on Bangladesh to defeat India on the final day and their net run rate finishing higher than Sri Lanka (or Pakistan defeating Sri Lanka).
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6. Sri Lanka – 4 points, -1.035 NRR
Sri Lanka have to defeat Pakistan in their final group match to have any chance of sneaking into the semi-finals.
They will also require India to drop both their matches - to New Zealand and Bangladesh - the White Ferns to lose to England and for their net run rate to finish higher than the Kiwis.
