Explainer: Why it’s still all to play for heading into the final round of WT20Q group stage matches

Why Bangladesh and Ireland aren’t yet qualified

Despite excellent starts to their campaigns – each side has won both their opening games comprehensively – Bangladesh and Ireland aren’t quite through to the semi-finals yet.

If Bangladesh lose to United Arab Emirates and Papua New Guinea beat Netherlands, then UAE, PNG and Bangladesh will all be on four points, and it will come down to net run rate. However, considering Bangladesh’s net run rate is more than 2.5 net runs per over better than UAE in second place, they will still be well-placed even in this scenario to not just qualify, but top the group. It would take a victory by 50 runs or with 12 overs to spare for UAE to overtake them.

Ireland’s situation is similar. If they lose to Uganda, and Scotland beat Thailand then Ireland, Scotland and Uganda will all be on four points. Ireland are placed slightly more precariously than Bangladesh in that their net run rate is already worse than Scotland’s in second place, so if they lose and Scotland win they will lose top spot, and face a tricky semi-final against the Group A winners, most likely Bangladesh. They are still more than 2.5 net runs per over ahead of Uganda, for whom it would again take a victory of about 50 runs or with 12 overs to spare.

Why Netherlands and Thailand aren’t yet eliminated

Both teams have lost their first two games and Netherlands will be especially disappointed considering they are the hosts. But they both still have a chance of reaching the all-important semi-final stage.

For Netherlands, they need to beat PNG and hope Bangladesh beat UAE by a big margin, though with their net run rate below -2, it will take a sizeable win – by about 25 runs or with more than four overs remaining – to even overtake PNG in third place.

For Thailand, they need to beat Scotland and hope Ireland beat Uganda. Thailand’s net run rate is already better than Uganda’s so any margin of Irish victory will do it for them. Victory by about 40 runs, or with more than seven overs to spare will see them haul in Scotland and qualify.

The nail-biter that made all the difference

Things could have been so different had UAE’s nail-biter against PNG gone the other way. PNG managed to edge home with a ball to spare and two wickets in hand. Had UAE won, they and Bangladesh would have already qualified for the semi-finals, and PNG and Netherlands would be out. As it it is, every team is in with a chance of progressing.