Flashback: a long time between wins for the Aussies

If Australia loses to England on Saturday, it would be somewhere in the order of 4,300 days between Australian wins at the tournament by the time they get their next opportunity in 2021.

This theoretical statistic is rather overblown, considering that the Champions Trophy comes around once every four years and can last as few as three games, and at least half of Australia’s games in that period have been washed out.

But it does emphasise the must-win nature of Saturday’s classic match-up with England for the team from the Antipodes. Chances to win the Champions Trophy are few and far between, and they can slip through the fingers in a couple of damp afternoons.

The last time this nation won a game at this tournament was when they won the tournament itself. It was 2009, the year when Shane Watson put Australia on his broad shoulders and carried them to the title.

It was, quite likely, the maligned all-rounder’s finest hour. Watson had also been the man of the match in the 2006 Champions Trophy final, another Australian win. But things did not start promisingly this time around.

First he had his stumps smashed by Kemar Roach from Australia’s first ball of the tournament. Then he holed out for another duck trying to hook Ashish Nehra. He got a start of 24 chasing Pakistan’s 206, but was first man out in a collapse that saw Australia crawl across the line from the last ball.

At that point, Australia’s burly opening batsman suddenly arrived. Shaggy, blond, and ursine, he planted his feet and swung at fate with all the power in his considerable forearms.

England might have thought they were in with a chance of defending 257 in the semi-final, given Australia’s struggles the game before. But Watson punched the ball into the Centurion grandstands seven times on his way to an unbeaten 136 at better than a run a ball.

Graeme Swann got the treatment first, before Tim Bresnan, James Anderson and Paul Collingwood received their share in turn, every one of the blows landing in that classic hitter’s arc between wide long-on and deep square leg.

Come the final, also on South Africa’s Centurion pitch, Australia’s bowlers piled on the pressure in helpful conditions to restrict New Zealand to 200. It looked easy on paper, but against high-class pace from Shane Bond and Kyle Mills it was anything but. This was exacerbated when Watson lost his opening partner Tim Paine and his captain Ricky Ponting, the form batsman of the tournament, for one run apiece, leaving Australia 6 for 2.

Instead he settled in for a very different knock, defending his way to 33 from 62 balls before cracking his first six with a pull shot. The next over brought another, against Jeetan Patel, and having seen out the opposition’s two best bowlers, Watson got his head down again and kept building.

He didn’t look up until he was on 93, with Australia six short of New Zealand’s score. He allowed himself one slog-sweep to tie the scores, then another to win the title and seal his century.

That’s the sort of adaptability that Australia’s current batsmen may need to show against an excellent English bowling attack. Edgbaston hasn’t been the easiest place to score runs this tournament – Pakistan tied down South Africa with spin on a worn pitch, and there has also been some bounce for the fast men.

Then there’s the issue of being out of touch with the conditions, given Australia’s batsmen have barely had the opportunity to break out their equipment. In total the team has faced 25 overs across two matches, with only Steven Smith and David Warner spending any decent time in the middle. No one batting below four in the order has even faced a ball.

For England, progression to the semi-finals is guaranteed, but there’s the chance to tune up for that game and build their momentum by dumping their biggest rival out of the tournament. The hosts don’t need much more motivation than that.

Australia could still theoretically progress if they suffer a third washout, depending on the winning margin between New Zealand and Bangladesh. But a loss will see them gone, counting off those 4,300 days on their fingers. Only a win guarantees them another chance at silverware, and to see who can be the new Shane Watson – a rather niche role to be revisited in eight years’ time.