How the WTC Final swung Australia’s way
A little before tea on day three, when India were bowled out for 296, they had conceded that massive first-innings lead, and the ICC’s win predictor, delivered in collaboration with their official data partner, Sportradar, reflected how much it mattered: India’s chances of winning the Ultimate Test at that point stood at 7%.
In the entire history of Test cricket (that’s 2505 Tests, including this one), there have only been 14 instances of a team being behind by 173 runs or more after both sides’ first innings and going on to win the game.
Rohit Sharma, India’s captain, agreed that his side had conceded a lot of ground with that first-innings showing. “If we had reached near the target, they had set in the first innings, if they had got less of a lead, then the game could have gone anywhere,” Rohit said after the game. “We didn't bat that well in the first innings. We were behind by 170 [173] runs. So when you are behind, the opposition has the advantage.”
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India had been at the other end of the spectrum recently in England. In the final Test of the five-match Pataudi Trophy, played in July 2022 at Edgbaston, India made 416 batting first and bowled England out for 284. However, the lead of 132 proved to be short for India as England eventually chased down 378 in 76.4 overs. But, that was England’s highest successful run-chase in Tests and the most India have conceded in the final innings to lose a Test. In short, that result was an anomaly.
India’s target at The Oval in the WTC final was 444, a target never before achieved to win a Test match. The win predictor going into that chase had India’s chances at 10.3%.
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This would go as high as 17% when Virat Kohli and Ajinkya Rahane were building a solid stand towards the end of day four. But Kohli’s dismissal on 49, with India’s score at 179, brought their chances down dramatically to 2.3%.
Before this, India’s lowest point in the game, in terms of win percentage, was when Travis Head was going after their bowlers as Australia built towards their big first-innings total.
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Head’s partnership with Steve Smith, and the former’s innings in particular, was something Rohit pointed to as well, as a period of the game that really hurt India. “What happened in the opposition camp is, two of their batters got big runs and got them in the position where they can fight,” Rohit said. “And that is what was required from our side as well. A couple of batters putting their hand up and getting those big runs and getting close to their [first-innings] target. That really didn't happen.
“We really thought we were, you know, quite in the game [before the Head-Smith stand] and then the way Travis Head came and played, he completely took the game away from us.”
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Just prior to Head's dismissal, India had a win percentage of 5.2%. It spiked to 9.6% after Head fell, and by the end of Australia’s first innings, it was 12.1%. India had a lot of work on their hands from there, if they were to claw their way back, and the ordinary show that followed with the bat sealed their fate.