State of Play in Group 1: Kiwis in driving seat with Australia and England vulnerable
It’s still all to play for in Group 1. We take a look at the state of play as things stand.
New Zealand are the only unbeaten team in Group 1 after three matches, and the margins of their 89-run win over Australia and 65-run win over Sri Lanka have given them a big edge in the Net Run Rate column too.
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A Net RR of +3.850 is almost as good as an extra point, barring a crushing defeat of their own in the remaining matches.
The washout and shared points against Afghanistan could yet go against the Kiwis, but with the rest of the group taking points off each other, it is still very much advantage Black Caps in the qualification race.
All five other teams in the group could potentially leapfrog New Zealand in the final two matchdays, but they already have one foot in the semi-finals and can effectively guarantee that with a win against England next time out.
One of Australia or England could have taken a big step towards the semi-finals with a win at the MCG, but Friday’s washout means they remain level on three points with Ireland, who themselves had a washout against Afghanistan.
It looks like at least one of the top two will be decided on run rate, where after New Zealand it is England who currently hold the edge over the rest of Group 1.
The crushing nature of Australia’s loss to New Zealand in the opening match of the group had put them in a perilous position, not only because of the result but also because of its impact on NRR.
The tournament hosts know that they cannot afford to lose another game – two defeats isn’t mathematically terminal to a team’s qualification chances, but it will likely take a lot of fortune to qualify with just three wins in the Super 12 stage.
However, the chances of a successful title defence have increased – firstly courtesy of the win over Sri Lanka in Perth on Tuesday, particularly thanks to Marcus Stoinis’ late flurry of runs which saw them chase down the target with more than three overs remaining, cutting some of that NRR deficit in the process.
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Match highlights of Marcus Stoinis and Australia chasing down Sri Lanka's competitive total in the ICC Men's T20 World Cup 2022.
And England’s loss to Ireland, plus the washout between the Aussies and English in Melbourne, means run rate looks increasingly likely to be a factor.
After three games they have a NRR of -1.555 – the worst in the group. But, on paper at least, the fixtures are in Australia’s favour. The final two matches are against the lowest ranked in the group, Afghanistan and Ireland, which theoretically gives Australia an edge if it does comes down to run rate.
Momentum is not in England’s favour. A rain-impacted loss to Ireland has been followed by a washout against Australia, leaving Jos Buttler’s side in a spot of bother in Group 1.
The upcoming meeting with New Zealand is now even more significant. Win that and England can make a real statement going into the final match day. Lose and qualification will be completely out of their hands, or potentially completely impossible depending on results in the meantime.
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What England do know is that two big wins in their final two matches, first against the Kiwis and then Sri Lanka, should be enough to send them through.
It could well come down to run rate though, and that is where the slightly tentative chase against Afghanistan in England’s opener is now a bit of a problem. With Australia possessing the theoretically easier fixtures in the run-in, Buttler and co are in danger of being usurped on scoring rate if they fail to win big.
Where England do have the edge in the Net RR conundrum is that their final game is the last in the group. If qualification hopes are still alive at that stage, England will know exactly what they need against Sri Lanka to qualify – a big advantage.
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England v New Zealand - Tue 01 November
This huge clash at The Gabba was one of the standout fixtures of the Super 12 stage even before a ball was bowled. But the situation in Group 1 means it is now even more massive.
Should New Zealand win they could be through depending on other results in the fourth set of group matches, but even if not mathematically qualified, they will have more than a foot in the semis with a win.
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Match highlights of Glenn Phillips' century and Trent Boult's four-for that helped New Zealand beat Sri Lanka by 65 runs in their ICC Men's T20 World Cup 2022 clash.
But if England win, it blows the whole group wide open. That result would draw them level with New Zealand on five points and set up a final round of games in which five of the six teams could still make it into the top two – albeit with Net RR making the task very difficult for at least one of those teams.
All eyes will be on The Gabba, this result will have far-reaching consequences.
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Monday 31 October: Australia v Ireland, The Gabba, Brisbane
Tuesday 01 November: Afghanistan v Sri Lanka, The Gabba, Brisbane
Tuesday 01 November: England v New Zealand, The Gabba, Brisbane
Friday 04 November: Ireland v New Zealand, Adelaide Oval
Friday 04 November: Australia v Afghanistan, Adelaide Oval
Saturday 05 November: Sri Lanka v England, SCG, Sydney
