What England need to do to qualify for the Tri-Series final
England's form has varied wildly between formats during their tour of Australia and New Zealand. Having been thumped 4-0 in the Ashes by Australia, they recovered to win the ODI series against Australia, before losing the first three games of the Trans-Tasman Tri-Series against Australia and New Zealand. But because of Australia's dominance - New Zealand's victory against England is their only win so far - they remain in with a chance of qualifying for the Final.
To do that, they will have to win the final T20I of the group stage against New Zealand, and do so by a big enough margin to push their net run rate above their opponents. We've crunched the numbers and figured out what they need to do in almost every situation.
Batting first
This is the easy bit. If England bat first they will need to win by somewhere around 20 runs, and the more they score, the more they will need to win by.
|
If England score… |
18-43 |
44-129 |
130-216 |
216+ |
|
They must win by at least… |
18 runs |
19 runs |
20 runs |
21 runs |
Batting second
This is trickier, because it depends on three factors: how quickly England chase New Zealand's total, how much New Zealand score, and by how much England exceed their target - if England hit a six with the scores level, they will increase their net run rate by more than if they run a single, all else being equal. To simplify it however, England will probably have about 18 overs to chase whatever New Zealand make.
If England score one more than New Zealand
|
If New Zealand score… |
0-19 |
20-87 |
88-176 |
177+ |
|
England must chase it within… |
17.3 overs |
17.4 overs |
17.5 overs |
18 overs |
If England score two more than New Zealand
|
If New Zealand score… |
0-31 |
32-111 |
112-219 |
219+ |
|
England must chase it within… |
17.4 overs |
17.5 overs |
18 overs |
18.1 overs |
If England score three more than New Zealand
|
If New Zealand score… |
0-46 |
47-143 |
144+ |
|
England must chase it within… |
17.5 overs |
18 overs |
18.1 overs |
If England score four more than New Zealand
|
If New Zealand score… |
0-67 |
68-188 |
189+ |
|
England must chase it within… |
18 overs |
18.1 overs |
18.2 overs |
If England score five more than New Zealand
|
If New Zealand score… |
0-96 |
97-258 |
258+ |
|
England must chase it within… |
18.1 overs |
18.2 overs |
18.3 overs |
If England score six more than New Zealand
|
If New Zealand score… |
0-4 |
5-140 |
140+ |
|
England must chase it within… |
18.1 overs |
18.2 overs |
18.3 overs |
Of course, all this is assuming we get a full, rain-unaffected 20-over-a-side game. If the game is shortened, you'll be able to find us sitting in a dark room, rubbing our temples in confusion.